2020年9月船舶拍卖市场评述
从9月制造业pmi数据来看,国内工业增速进一步回升,基建、地产投资单月增速仍然偏强,经济继续向正常回归。欧洲疫情出现第二波爆发,支撑防疫物资出口,前两月出口偏强的局面在9月持续,加上煤炭等干散货需求紧俏,运输市场行情波动上扬。本月中国船舶拍卖市场累计拍卖74艘次,成交41艘次,成交率55.4%,起拍价累计约37005万人民币,成交额累计27039万人民币,各项拍卖数据均较上月有较大幅度的回升。
一、运输市场行情震荡上扬,船东拍船热情增长
“金九银十”的消费旺季带动下游补库节奏加快,运输需求提振,沿海运输市场总体呈上涨走势,国际运输市场在后疫情时代表现异常波动,但较上半年行情明显改善,船东信心有所增强。根据拍船网(www.shipbid.net)统计数据,9月,中国船舶拍卖市场累计拍卖74艘次,环比增加33艘次,同比减少1艘次。其中,干散货类船舶拍卖18艘次,环比减少2艘次,液货类船舶拍卖18艘次,环比增加16艘次。成交率方面,本月累计成交41艘次,环比减少22艘次,成交率为55.4%,成交率有所上升。
拍卖金额较上月大幅回升。9月,中国船舶拍卖市场起拍价累计约37005万人民币,环比增加20286万人民币,较上月大幅回升,同比减少19471万人民币;成交额累计27039万人民币,环比增加11033万人民币,同比减少7396万人民币。
图1 中国船舶拍卖市场拍卖艘次情况
图2 中国船舶拍卖市场拍卖金额情况
二、船舶拍卖市场行情上扬,沿海干散货船表现相对较好
全球经济整体呈修复趋势,欧美确诊人数虽有反弹,但检测力度显著增强,病死率明显下降,劳动力市场开始好转,欧洲制造业pmi指数正在回升。全球货币宽松政策在经历半年多的抬升后继续增长,但拐点已渐行渐近,货币宽松退潮过程预计相对温和,但防疫物资、粮食缺口依然存在,基础生活保障物资物价上涨仍将出现。国内外运输市场受经济复苏的推动,绝大对数航线已恢复至往年同期水平,船舶交易热情也逐步上扬。
司法拍卖方面,本月拍卖船舶68艘次,成交36艘次,成交率52.9%,起拍价总额17281万元,成交总额9481万元,本月由于12艘“中粤油”系列内河油船开拍,液货类船舶拍卖数量大增;商业拍卖方面,本月拍卖船舶6艘次,成交5艘次,成交率83.3%,起拍价总额19724万元,成交总额17557万元,成交额保持在月度较高水平。
重点船舶拍卖情况,干散货船舶方面,巴拿马型散货船“ningbo pioneer”最终以297万美元成交,“通成603”和“通成604”两艘甲板货船以1316万人民币和1523万人民币高溢价成交,溢价率超90%。油运船舶方面,外籍成品油船“xin sheng”以268万美元成交,广州海事法院“中粤油”系列12艘内河成品油船均以单船100万人民币左右的价格成交。其他船型方面,客滚类船舶成交7艘次,渔业用船成交3艘次,工程类船舶成交5艘次,环比均有较大幅度的增加。
「9月拍卖成交船舶案例」
干散货类船舶
|
序号
|
船名
|
航区
|
载重吨
|
建造年份
|
造船厂
|
起拍价
万元
|
成交价
万元
|
出价次数
|
1
|
ningbo pioneer
|
无限
|
68788
|
1990
|
韩国
|
$297
|
$297
|
1
|
甲板货船
|
序号
|
船名
|
航区
|
载重吨
|
建造年份
|
造船厂
|
起拍价
万元
|
成交价
万元
|
出价次数
|
1
|
通成603
|
沿海
|
4901
|
2010
|
温岭
|
¥680
|
¥1316
|
118
|
2
|
通成604
|
沿海
|
4901
|
2010
|
温岭
|
¥680
|
¥1523
|
226
|
液货类船舶
|
序号
|
船名
|
航区
|
载重吨
|
建造年份
|
造船厂
|
起拍价
万元
|
成交价
万元
|
出价次数
|
1
|
xin sheng
|
无限
|
4922.6
|
2014
|
台州
|
$268
|
$268
|
1
|
2
|
中粤油15
|
内河
|
1400
|
2004
|
佛山
|
¥85.62
|
¥107.22
|
28
|
客滚类船舶
|
序号
|
船名
|
航区
|
载客量
|
建造年份
|
造船厂
|
起拍价
万元
|
成交价
万元
|
出价次数
|
1
|
普陀山
|
近海
|
728
|
1990
|
上海
|
¥255
|
¥299
|
40
|
「10月拍卖船舶预告」
干散货类船舶
|
序号
|
船名
|
航区
|
载重吨
|
建造年份
|
造船厂
|
起拍价
万元
|
1
|
融航机6198
|
内河
|
5460
|
2005
|
南京
|
¥299
|
未完工船舶
|
序号
|
船名
|
航区
|
载重吨
|
建造年份
|
造船厂
|
起拍价
万元
|
1
|
jz1038
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
泰州
|
¥4680
|
monthly
analysis of ship auction market in china
september
2020
according to the purchasing managers' index (pmi) of manufacturing
in september, domestic industrial growth picks up further, infrastructure and
real estate investment grow at a relatively strong rate in this month, and the
economy continues to go back to normal. the second peak of the epidemic outbreak
in europe makes the export of epidemic prevention materials grow. the strong
export activities in the previous two months continue in september. the
transport market rises with fluctuation for strong demand of coal and other dry
bulk commodities. this month, the ship auction market in china has seen a total
of 74 auctions and 41 transactions, with a transaction rate of 55.4%. the total
starting price is about ¥370.05m, while the total transaction price is ¥270.39m. the data have rebounded significantly from last month.
the transportation market rises with fluctuations, and ship
owners' enthusiasm for auctioning ships increases.
in
the consumption of so-called "golden september" and "silver
october", driven by the accelerated pace of replenishment in the
downstream, the transport demand is boosted, and the coastal transport market is
generally on the rise. while the international transport market shows abnormal
fluctuations in the post-epidemic era, but it’s significantly improved compared
with the market in the first half of the year, and shipowners' confidence has
been enhanced. according to data from
www.shipbid.net1, the total ship auctions of september are 74,which
increase 33 mom but decrease 1 yoy. among them, the bulk carrier auctions are
18, which decrease 2 mom. the chemical & tanker auctions are 18, which
increase 16 mom. in terms of transaction rate, there are 41 auctions traded in september,
which decrease 22 mom, with slightly rising transaction rate of 55.4%.
in september, the transaction price rebounds sharply from last month. the total starting price
of the chinese ship auction market is approximately ¥370.05m, with a significant increase of ¥202.86m mom but decreases ¥194.71m yoy. the
total transaction price is ¥270.39m, which increases ¥110.33m mom but decreases ¥73.96m yoy.
chart1 total of ship auctions in china
chart2
total price of ship auction in china
the ship auction market has risen, and coastal dry bulk carriers are
in relatively good condition.
the
overall global economy is showing a trend of recovery. although the number of
confirmed cases of covid-19 in europe and the united states has rebounded, the testing
have enhanced significantly, at the same time, the fatality rate has dropped,
the labor market has begun to improve, and the pmi of european manufacturing is
picking up. the easing monetary policy has continued to impel all over the
world for more than half a year, the turning point of it has gradually
approached and it is expected to end mildly. however the shortage of epidemic prevention
materials and food still exists and the price of daily necessities will still rising.
driven by the economic recovery in the domestic and international
transportation markets, most routes have returned to the same level as in
previous years, and the enthusiasm of ship trading has gradually increased.
in
terms of judicial auction, there are 68 ships auctioned in september, of which
36 ships are sold, with the transaction rate of 52.9%. the total starting price
is ¥172.81m, and the total transaction
price is ¥94.81m. this
month has seen a surge in sales of 12 inland tanker auctions of "zhongyueyou"
series. in terms of commercial auctions, there are 6 ships auctioned, of which 5
ships are sold, with the transaction rate of 83.3%. the total starting price is
¥197.24m, the total
transaction price is ¥175.57m,
with a high premium rate.
followed are
some specific auctions. in terms of bulk carriers, the panamax bulk carrier
ningbo pioneer is sold at $2.97m. deck cargo ships of tongcheng 603 and
tongcheng 604 are sold at ¥13.16m
and ¥15.23m respectively with high premium
rate of over 90%. in terms of tankers, the oil product carrier xin sheng of
foreign registration is sold at $2.68m. the guangzhou maritime court has sold 12
inland tankers of zhongyueyou series for around ¥1.0m
each. in terms of other ships, there are 7 passenger ships, 3 fishing ships, 5 engineering
ships traded, both increasing sharply month-on-month.
samples of ship auctions
bulk
carriers
|
no.
|
ship
name
|
sailing
area
|
dwt
|
year
built
|
shipyard
|
starting
price
|
transaction
price
|
bids
|
1
|
ningbo pioneer
|
无限
|
68788
|
1990
|
韩国
|
$297
|
$297
|
1
|
deck
cargo ship
|
no.
|
ship
name
|
sailing
area
|
dwt
|
year
built
|
shipyard
|
starting
price
|
transaction
price
|
bids
|
1
|
tongcheng 603
|
coastal
|
4901
|
2010
|
wenling
|
¥6.8m
|
¥13.16m
|
118
|
2
|
tongcheng 604
|
coastal
|
4901
|
2010
|
wenling
|
¥6.8m
|
¥15.23m
|
226
|
chemicals
& tankers
|
no.
|
ship
name
|
sailing
area
|
dwt
|
year
built
|
shipyard
|
starting
price
|
transaction
price
|
bids
|
1
|
xin sheng
|
unlimited
|
4922.6
|
2014
|
taizhou
|
$2.68m
|
$2.68m
|
1
|
2
|
zhongyueyou
15
|
inland river
|
1400
|
2004
|
foshan
|
¥0.86
|
¥1.07m
|
28
|
passenger
ship
|
no.
|
ship
name
|
sailing
area
|
passenger
|
year
built
|
shipyard
|
starting
price
|
transaction
price
|
bids
|
1
|
putongshan
|
coastal
|
728
|
1990
|
shanghai
|
¥2.55m
|
¥2.99m
|
40
|
preview of ship auctions
bulk
carriers
|
no.
|
ship
name
|
sailing
area
|
dwt
|
year
built
|
shipyard
|
starting
price
|
1
|
ronghangji
6198
|
inland river
|
5460
|
2005
|
nanjing
|
¥2.99m
|
unfinished
ship
|
no.
|
ship
name
|
sailing
area
|
dwt
|
year
built
|
shipyard
|
starting
price
|
1
|
jz1038
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
taizhou
|
¥46.8m
|